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Saturday, May 27, 2017

05.27.2017 USOil long term

Last analysis:

All went as expected, so far.

2-daily TF

My last count would have called for a sharp upwards movement from the low, because I awaited a C-wave up.

Well, we can not see a sharp movement so far.

All we see is fairly corrective price patterns.

So I abandoned the idea of a bigger ABC-flat (up), which would have been the B-wave of the correction since the very top.

Although I have a bit of headache with the new wave 1 blue in my new chart: On first sight at higher or highest TF it looks pretty corrective, but when one goes sub daily TF, one can count an impulsive wave.

The ongoing wave 4 blue may reach the top of the gren wave 4, which is around 62 USD.

The base channel comes in around 62-70.

Count will be invalidated around 75.

It is very hard to count the price action in the ongoing wave 4 blue. Chances are 50:50, that we will see either up or down, When first down, then maybe a more complex corrective pattern is building, and the target of around 60 is postponed for a while.

05.27.2017 BTC USD long term view

First attempt at Bitcoin

daily TF

log scale

the ongoing wave blue 5 is hard to count

price- and time-wise it may be finished

Most likely the count is completely wrong, when price does not manage to go back into the 150 USD

When I called the 150-100 USD range last time (it was early January 2014), people got crazy on me LOL

One year later I was right.

So be careful with critics   ROFL

For me, the point of recognition, not only on the chart, but also in the MSM was in the year 2013, when the hype about BTC started.

Maybe more later.......

Friday, May 26, 2017

05.20.2017 EURUSD long term counts and alternatives

05.26.2017 DX long term count

Last view:


DXY count

daily TF

well, right now we have only around 5-7% DXY bulls left. That alone may call for a rally sooner than later. The only time out of my experience, when the masses are right for a long time, is in the center of a wave 3 on multiple degree.

But here we are only a relatively tiny movement away from the highs, and the structure does not look like a 3 of a 3.

Regarding the blue impulse up: wave 1 (blue) is nearly equal wave 5 blue. Although the wave 5 blue has no clear impulsive pattern, I decided to label it as wave 5, because of wave 1 blue = wave 5 blue.

Time wise, 80% of all wave 4 are within the 0-175% of wave 2. We have around 100% in this case.

If we imply that since the wave 3 blue top all following action is a broad wave 4, then we are running quickly out of probability, because only very few times
wave 4 is bigger than 200% of wave 2 time-wise.

In this case, the count from the blue 3 top would be kind of an ABC-flat, where we are now in wave C down.

The wave C of a flat is ideally between 100-200% of wave A. We are a bit short here of the 100%
Also the wave C of a flat should be ideally between around 80-170% of wave B. Right now we are somewhat around 60% roughly.

The structure down from the blue 5 looks at the moment like a double 3.

For me, above all counts, structure and time considerations, is the fact, that the bears right now are so many (95%).

Looks set to go higher soon out of my view.

keep also an eye on the red 1,2 respective the red AB:

now the top is around 161,8 of red 1 (or A)


Friday, October 21, 2016

10.21.2016 EURUSD long term count

Decision point?

The count down from the green C is open to multiple interpretations.

The worst case scenario is a multiple 1-2 sequence such as

1-2-(1-2(1-2-3-and now in 4  (or 4 already finished)

Looking at various positioning data from broker outlets, one can see, that the crowd went long around two weeks ago, just in time for the EURUSD to drop.

Positioning data do not show extreme bullishness so the drop may go further.