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Friday, May 26, 2017

05.20.2017 EURUSD long term counts and alternatives

05.26.2017 DX long term count

Last view:


DXY count

daily TF

well, right now we have only around 5-7% DXY bulls left. That alone may call for a rally sooner than later. The only time out of my experience, when the masses are right for a long time, is in the center of a wave 3 on multiple degree.

But here we are only a relatively tiny movement away from the highs, and the structure does not look like a 3 of a 3.

Regarding the blue impulse up: wave 1 (blue) is nearly equal wave 5 blue. Although the wave 5 blue has no clear impulsive pattern, I decided to label it as wave 5, because of wave 1 blue = wave 5 blue.

Time wise, 80% of all wave 4 are within the 0-175% of wave 2. We have around 100% in this case.

If we imply that since the wave 3 blue top all following action is a broad wave 4, then we are running quickly out of probability, because only very few times
wave 4 is bigger than 200% of wave 2 time-wise.

In this case, the count from the blue 3 top would be kind of an ABC-flat, where we are now in wave C down.

The wave C of a flat is ideally between 100-200% of wave A. We are a bit short here of the 100%
Also the wave C of a flat should be ideally between around 80-170% of wave B. Right now we are somewhat around 60% roughly.

The structure down from the blue 5 looks at the moment like a double 3.

For me, above all counts, structure and time considerations, is the fact, that the bears right now are so many (95%).

Looks set to go higher soon out of my view.

keep also an eye on the red 1,2 respective the red AB:

now the top is around 161,8 of red 1 (or A)


Friday, October 21, 2016

10.21.2016 EURUSD long term count

Decision point?

The count down from the green C is open to multiple interpretations.

The worst case scenario is a multiple 1-2 sequence such as

1-2-(1-2(1-2-3-and now in 4  (or 4 already finished)

Looking at various positioning data from broker outlets, one can see, that the crowd went long around two weeks ago, just in time for the EURUSD to drop.

Positioning data do not show extreme bullishness so the drop may go further.

Thursday, October 13, 2016

Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Broken Links and missing Blog-rolls

Unfortunately Google has a huge problem with their sidebar gadgets like blogrolls etc. since a few days. Many blogger have lost all their links in their blog-rolls due to this problem.

I am hoping that Google is able to fix this issue, because I know that many of you are visiting this blog mainly because of the blog-rolls or other links. Since I do not write/publish much lateley it is no wonder :-)

It seem they are working on the problem. If they are not able to fix this problem, I have to build all the lists anew, and that is time consuming.

I hope that all the links are back within the next two weeks.

Good luck to you all and best wishes,