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Tuesday, September 5, 2017

09.05.2017 USDCAD long term count

Recap:


10.15.2015 USDCAD long term count

Had to correct the count after it made the new high in 2016



Right now Options-Traders are only 14% bullish on USDCAD

My conviction for the count is not really high.


Here is what I think now:


Sunday, September 3, 2017

09.03.2017 NZDUSD long term count

Recap:

10.22.2015 NZDUSD long term count

So fat the count is still valid.



From Sentiment side:

Option Traders are at around 40% bulls - so no clear signal from this side. They have become a bit more bearish the last days. But from this side it can go both ways.

From TIFF COT Analysis: two weeks ago the Dealers had record net short positions, whereas Leveraged Money had record net long positions. Both parties are reducing now their exposure significantly.

Open interest is significantly down, whereas trading volume has gone up significantly (judging from the /6N ). This alone should call for more downside pressure.

As per the CBOE report: the largest 4 traders (which have a good track record as I see) are net heavily short. From this point the direction may be further down.

Forex Retail Trader were short since June 8th, got burned, held to their positions all the time and are now net long. That calls for further declining price, too.

The movement from the 0,606 low up has so far been very corrective/overlapping. Maybe we are building an ABC-flat up. In this ABC we are in wave B, which itself may unfold as an ABC-flat down. In this flat down, we may be in impulsive wave C down. Target would be ideally between 0,66 to 0,635





Saturday, August 19, 2017

08.19.2017 Dow Jones and SP500 - long term

Hello my Friends,

last week I wrote some lengthy articles about the long term counts of DJ/SP500 at
Forexfactory. It all started here with the question/remark made by my buddy Sixer.

You can read the exchange of opinions there as well as the reasoning.

I will focus here only on the charts I presented.


Inflation adjusted count of Dow Jones:

for many interesting charts visit the great site here: http://www.macrotrends.net/



























In light of the above shown chart this was the trap, in my opinion, for nearly all Elliotticans in 2000:

the chart was counted but no one cared for inflation adjustment!

























This idea of inflation adjustment came to me, when I accidentally stumbled upon the inflation adjusted chart and the overlappings sprung into my eyes.

And this count is now analogous to the inflation adjusted count:






























clarification to the points of recognition

A point of recognition can be seen in literally every wave 3.

But on above chart I mean:

the first circled one is not a really point of recognition in form of a 3 of 3 of 3 or that kind, because look to the left on the chart: it had not discovered "terra incognita".

the second cycled one has discovered "terra incognita", therefore it deserves to be the real 3





EW has some rules and many guidelines, but often times one has room for interpretation :-(

I am a bit annoyed about myself having only seen today, that the supposed to be wave 3 in the Dow is, with high probability, only another wave 1. That sucks, really.

Prechter may now be totally wrong with his deflationary scenario as the big endgame for the next years. Yes, we may see deflation (and we do see it already). But it may only be the prelude for a much more toxic hyperinflation thereafter. Prechter thinks, that the recent building deflation will reset the market to values not seen since the 1929 crash.

Now this seems to be totally wrong. If my thesis now is right, the deflationary phase will drag us only down to the 2009 levels. And we have learned what the CB's will be doing in this case: they will print like mad, eventually releasing the helicopter money. Then the wave 5 will give tribute to its Eliott Wave name: sucker-rally

All goes up, but no one will really gain because of the hyperinflationary scenario.

It seems now, at least for me, that the "Crack-up-boom" theorists have won.



Above mentioned fault with the wave 3 point of recognition: simply look to the left side on the chart: if the proposed to be wave 3 has not filled area, which was not covered before, it may not be the the major wave 3. This is especially true for stock markets or things that naturally develop in the long scheme to ever higher levels.

If a point of recognition in a major 3 in stock markets does not enter new territory, it may only be a further wave 1, or an diagonal.

OK, this can be discussed, certainly: Because it is my thesis. But since EW is about market psychology, it makes only sense in this way in my opinion.




The question now is really a big on for Elliott wave, at least when counting long term counts:

Has the chart to be inflation adjusted or not, when counting long term counts?


Feel free to discuss this with me, but only in my thread "The Club" over at Forexfactory.



When inflation goes up or hyperinflation sets in, prices of assets will also "automatically" adjust.
This adjustment has nothing to do with "underlying" psychology but it is only a mere process.

Simply put: ask some people of countries with hyperinflation, if they are in exceptional good mood,
when the price of their daily goods rise 10 fold or 100 fold. Certainly they are not.



In light of this, it seems, I have to rework my historical charts of NatGas, Oil, Gold and Silver here on my blog in the future.

Interestingly enough, I can find some thoughts about inflation adjustments in the aftermath of the articles I wrote last week:


example given:

Inflation Adjusted And Solar Cycles SP500 Review!


Also of interest is, that Prechter in the EWP referenced at some point the inflation adjusted Dow, but it seems, that he had not followed through on this thought in the years after. Also here.


OK, let us look at the near term count of the SP500:

In light of what was said above, I think we have finished the wave 4 of an impulse that started in the year 1942. The wave 3 end of this impulse was the year 2000 top. (analogous to the above shown inflation adjusted DJ).

So now we are up in the wave 5 of this long term impulse since the year 2009 low.

weekly:

 Target for a wave red 4 would now be the 2200 to 2000 area. The following red 5 could reach the 2750-3000 area. When we have the red 4 in place, we can calculate better.

























Keep in mind:

on the chart we can see the red 1 and 2. After that a blue 1 follows. This blue 1 is prone to various interpretations. THAT IS VERY IMPORTANT!

The blue 1 can also be counted as the B-wave up of a bigger ABC-flat. In this case, the blue 2 would be the red 2, the blue 3 would be the red 3, and so we would be at/near the final top of this impulse.

Also to be noted:

from the low in 2016: this waves are too prone to more than one interpretation (the green numbers).
On the chart the count witch has the highest probability out of my sight. Next best count would be, that the recent top only marked the green wave 5, so we would be in for a wave black 4, black 5 sequence in the next weeks.


The waves in the stock markets are lately difficult to interpret, maybe because of the activities of the PPT's and the heavy use of automated trading as well as HTF's manipulation of market.

To give a simple trading advice in this environment:

simply put a SL around the last high and you will be fine. No environment for hero calls at all.

As always: Elliott Wave is not about right or wrong, or the adjustment of counts. It is all about probability.

Social mood can change on a dime, thus making our analysis moot in the blink of an eye.

Elliott wave, a fractal system, can account for such changes. Can your accout, too?


daily:







4h:









Saturday, May 27, 2017

05.27.2017 USOil long term

Last analysis:

https://singulorum001.blogspot.de/2015/10/10272015-usoil-long-term-count.html


All went as expected, so far.


2-daily TF

My last count would have called for a sharp upwards movement from the low, because I awaited a C-wave up.

Well, we can not see a sharp movement so far.

All we see is fairly corrective price patterns.

So I abandoned the idea of a bigger ABC-flat (up), which would have been the B-wave of the correction since the very top.

Although I have a bit of headache with the new wave 1 blue in my new chart: On first sight at higher or highest TF it looks pretty corrective, but when one goes sub daily TF, one can count an impulsive wave.

The ongoing wave 4 blue may reach the top of the gren wave 4, which is around 62 USD.

The base channel comes in around 62-70.

Count will be invalidated around 75.


It is very hard to count the price action in the ongoing wave 4 blue. Chances are 50:50, that we will see either up or down, When first down, then maybe a more complex corrective pattern is building, and the target of around 60 is postponed for a while.



05.27.2017 BTC USD long term view

First attempt at Bitcoin

daily TF

log scale


the ongoing wave blue 5 is hard to count

price- and time-wise it may be finished


Most likely the count is completely wrong, when price does not manage to go back into the 150 USD
vicinity.


When I called the 150-100 USD range last time (it was early January 2014), people got crazy on me LOL

One year later I was right.

So be careful with critics   ROFL


For me, the point of recognition, not only on the chart, but also in the MSM was in the year 2013, when the hype about BTC started.


Maybe more later.......